Selling one's future: over-indebtedness and the risk of poor mental health and the role of precarious employment - results from the Scania Public Health Cohort, Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: The credit market has expanded rapidly, increasing the risk of over-indebtedness among those who lack secure employment or adequate income, an issue of concern in the COVID-19 aftermath. We investigated the role of over-indebtedness for developing poor mental health, and whether this impact is modified by age, gender, educational level or being in precarious employment. METHODS: This is a cohort study using data from the Swedish Scania Public Health Cohort, based on individuals randomly selected from the general adult population in Scania, southern Sweden, initiated in 1999/2000 (response rate 58%) with follow-ups in 2005 and 2010. Over-indebtedness was assessed by combining information on cash margin and difficulty in paying household bills. Mental health was assessed by General Health Questionnaire-12. Those with poor mental health at baseline were excluded, and the analyses were further restricted to vocationally active individuals with complete data on main variables, resulting in 1256 men and 1539 women. RESULTS: Over-indebtedness was more common among women, among persons with a low educational level, born abroad and with a precarious employment at baseline. The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) for poor mental health in 2010 among individuals exposed to over-indebtedness in 1999/2000 or 2005 was 2.2 (95% CI 1.7 to 2.8). Adjusting for educational level, country of origin and precarious employment in 1999/2000 or 2005, yielded an IRR of 2.0 (95% CI 1.6 to 2.6). An interaction analysis indicated that a high level of education may act synergistically with over-indebtedness, regarding poor mental health among men. CONCLUSIONS: Over-indebtedness was related to unfavourable societal power relations, regarding social class, gender and foreign birth. Precarious employment was independently linked to poor mental health and may also mediate the effect by over-indebtedness. The COVID-19 pandemic might entail increased over-indebtedness, which should be acknowledged in policies aiming at buffering social effects of the pandemic.

A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: This article investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviours and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March to July 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household. METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96 053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21 804) and confirmed cases (n = 48 984)-to estimate the effects of the policy. RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1800-2700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification. CONCLUSIONS: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants - surveillance results from southern Sweden, December 2021 to March 2022.

We compared vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 between December 2021 and March 2022 when Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were the dominating SARS-CoV-2 variants in Scania county, Sweden. Effectiveness remained above 80% after the transition from BA.1 to BA.2 among people with at least three vaccine doses but the point estimate decreased markedly to 54% among those with only two doses. Protection from prior infection was also lower after the transition to BA.2. Booster vaccination seems necessary to maintain sufficient protection.

Risk of severe COVID-19 from the Delta and Omicron variants in relation to vaccination status, sex, age and comorbidities - surveillance results from southern Sweden, July 2021 to January 2022.

We compared the risk of severe COVID-19 during two periods 2021 and 2022 when Delta and Omicron, respectively, were the dominating virus variants in Scania county, Sweden. We adjusted for differences in sex, age, comorbidities, prior infection and vaccination. Risk of severe disease from Omicron was markedly lower among vaccinated cases. It was also lower among the unvaccinated but remained high (> 5%) for older people and middle-aged men with two or more comorbidities. Efforts to increase vaccination uptake should continue.

High level of protection against COVID-19 after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine in the working age population - first results from a cohort study in Southern Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 needs to be assessed in diverse real-world population settings. METHODS: A cohort study of 805,741 residents in Skåne county, Southern Sweden, aged 18-64 years, of whom 26,587 received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Incidence rates of COVID-19 were estimated in sex- and age-adjusted analysis and stratified in two-week periods with substantial community spread of the disease. RESULTS: The estimated vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection ≥7 days after second dose was 86% (95% CI 72-94%) but only 42% (95% CI 14-63%) ≥14 days after a single dose. No difference in vaccine effectiveness was observed between females and males. Having a prior positive test was associated with 91% (95% CI 85-94%) effectiveness against new infection among the unvaccinated. CONCLUSION: A satisfactory effectiveness of BNT162b2 after the second dose was suggested, but with possibly substantially lower effect before the second dose.